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Re: [Orchid] [Biz talk] The Long Emergency  
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From: David Phelps
Date: Mon Nov 19 04:22:36 2007
 
     
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    Ben Franklin said, "Keep thy shop, and thy shop will keep thee."
    This is where I place my hope for my future. Whatever awaits. 

    I'm responding as Neil is. As he pointed out, there were some during
    the Depression that still had the means. Some of the most beautiful
    jewelry ever made was created during the most trying financial times
    in modern world history. This tells me two things. First, there will
    always be the wealthy, and there will always be work for those that
    can cater to their desires. The other thing I take away from that
    time was also an observation made by Charles Darwin; only the fittest
    will survive. Only those in the best position to cater to those
    wealthy few, in quality of both design and craftsmanship will make it
    through the worst, if that should ever occur. 

    As Neil also observed, debt will be the bane of those who succumb to
    it. "Neither a lender nor a borrower be" is another Franklin adage I
    try to live by. I do not extend credit to my customers. After all, if
    the worst happens, who is going to be the first in line to be
    forgotten? The Power Company or the jeweler that is owed for a
    diamond wedding set? As to being a borrower, my guess is that a bank
    will try to repossess my tools and inventory long before they put
    people out of their homes to satisfy their investors and their bottom
    lines. I certainly hope that would be their priority. I intend to
    avoid that by not owing them anything. 

    One of the best hedges we in the jewelry industry have is that,
    unlike clothiers or restaurateurs or any number of other livelihoods,
    our inventory does not go out of style next season or spoil by next
    week. Even if it does go out of style, it will never spoil. We can
    always pull the stones out and melt down the metals if something
    doesn't sell and we need the money. Not too many other industries
    have that kind of Ace in the Hole with their inventories. 

    There is another aspect of what we do that is horrible to
    contemplate, but still somewhat comforting when considering a
    terrible set of conditions. During the Holocaust, three occupations
    that could save someone from the gas chambers were being a classical
    musician, a seamstress or a goldsmith. Sobering, but true. 

Dave
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